Well it’s been 7 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have
had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took.
Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone
to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all but
finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC
saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.
If you want to read a copy of that original
Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog www.dartfordproperty.blogspot.co.uk
and scroll back to late June to find it. In this article I would like to take my
thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer picture
as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Dartford Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of
the Dartford Borough Council area went against the National mood and voted as
follows ..
Dartford Borough Council Remain
Votes 19,985 (35.8% of the vote)
Dartford Borough Council Leave
Votes 35,870 (64.2% of the vote)
Dartford
Borough Council Turnout 75.5%
I have been reading there
is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote
Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's
techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the
2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many
surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to
support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Dartford
resident is 37.8 years old, which is below the national average of 39.3, which
might go someway to back up the way Dartford voted? What I do know is that
putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has,
and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market
needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the
UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership
rates in the Dartford Borough Council area, of the 27,354 properties that are owned in the Dartford Borough Council
area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared
ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 35 to 49 homeowners
8,888 or 32.5% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners
7,846 or 28.7% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners
6,921 or 25.3% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high
proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Dartford Borough
Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and
younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford
to buy?
But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample
of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its
millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people
voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education,
the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the
various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over
the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’;
because many didn't!
.. and the Dartford Property Market – well read my
original article in the Dartford Property Blog and you can make your own mind
up www.dartfordproperty.blogspot.co.uk
