Let me speak frankly,
even with Brexit and the fact immigration numbers will now be (potentially) reduced
in the coming years, there is an unending and severe shortage of new housing
being built in the Dartford area (and the UK as a whole). Even if there are short term confidence
trembles fuelled by newspapers hungry for bad news, the ever growing population
of Dartford with its high demand for property versus curtailed supply of
properties being built, this imbalance of supply/demand and the possibility of
even lower interest rates will underpin the property market.
When the Tories were
elected in 2015, Mr Cameron vowed to build 1,000,000 new homes by 2020. If we as a Country hit those levels of
building, most academics stated the UK Housing market would balance itself as
the increased supply of property would give a chance for the younger generation
to buy their own home as opposed to rent.
However, the up-to-date building figures show that in the first three
months of 2016 building starts were down. Nationally, there were 35,530 house building starts in the first
quarter, a long way off the 50,000 a quarter required to hit those ambitious
targets.
Looking closer to
home, over the last 12 months, new building in the Dartford Borough Council
area has dropped. In 2014/15, for every
one thousand existing households in the area, an additional 19.31 homes were
built. For 2015/16, that figure is now 19.02
homes built per thousand existing households. Nationally, to meet that 1,000,000 new homes
target, we need to be at 7.12 new homes per thousand, which
means Dartford Borough Council is actually above the National target, the
problem is the country is only building at a rate of 4.9 for every thousand
exiting households – we can’t just rely on little old Dartford to build for the
rest of the Country.
To put those numbers
into real chimney pots, over the last 12 months, in the Dartford Borough
Council area,
·
700 Private
Builders (e.g. New Homes Builders)
·
110 Housing
Association
·
Nil Local Authority
I am of the opinion
Messer’s Cameron and Osborne focused their attention too much on the demand
side of the housing equation, using the Help to Buy scheme and low deposit
mortgages to convert the ‘Generation Rent’ i.e. Dartford ‘20 somethings’ who
are set to rent for the rest of their lives to ‘Generation Buy’. On the other side of the coin, I would strongly
recommend the new Housing Minster, Gavin Barwell, should concentrate the Government’s
efforts on the supply side of the equation. There needs to be transformations to planning
laws, massive scale releases of public land and more investment, as more inventive
solutions are needed.
However, ultimately,
responsibility has to rest on the shoulders of Theresa May. Whilst our new PM has many plates to spin,
evading on the housing crisis will only come at greater cost later on. What a legacy it would be if it was Mrs May
who finally got to grips with the persistent and enduring shortage of homes to
live in. The PM has already referenced
the ‘need to do far more to get more houses built’ and stop the decline of home
ownership. However, she has also ruled
out any changes to the green belt policy – something I will talk about in a
future up and coming article. Hopefully
these statistics will raise the alarm bells again and persuade both residents
and Councilor’s in the Dartford Borough Council area that housing needs to be
higher on its agenda.
