I had an interesting chat the other
day with a Dartford landlord. He said he had been chatting with an architect
friend of his who said back in the mid 2000’s, the developments he was asked to
draw were a balance of one and two bed properties, compared to today where the
majority of the buildings he is designing are more towards two and sometimes
three bedrooms. Now of course, this was all anecdotal but it made me think if
similar things were happening in the Dartford property market?
This is a really important point as I
explained to this landlord, as knowing when and where the demand of tenants is going to come from in the coming decade is
just as important as knowing the supply
side of the buy to let equation, in relation to the number of properties built
in Dartford, Dartford property prices, Dartford yields and Dartford rents.
In 2001, there were 35,200 households with
a population of 85,900 in the Dartford Borough Council area. By 2011, that had
grown to 40,100 households and a population of 97,300.
..
meaning, between 2001 and 2011, whilst the number of households in the Dartford
Borough Council area grew by 13.74%, the population grew by 13.33%
Nothing surprising there then. But, as
my readers will know, there is always a but! My analysis of the 2011 Census
results, using the most recent in-depth data on household formation (eg ‘one
person households’, ‘couples/ family households’ or ‘couple + other adults
households and multi -adult households’), has displayed a sudden and
unexpected break with the trends of the whole of the 20th Century.
There has been a seismic change in household formation in Dartford between 2001
and 2011.
Between 2001 and 2011,
the population of Dartford grew, as did the number of Dartford properties
(because of new home building). However, the growth rate of new properties
built in Dartford was much lower than expected though, but still the population
has grown by what was expected, meaning the average
household size was larger than anticipated in Dartford. In fact, average
household size (ie the number of people
in each property) in 2011 was almost exactly the same as in 2001, the first
time for at least 100 years it had not fallen between censuses. (Since 1911, household
size has decreased by around 20% every decade).Looking at figures specifically for Dartford itself,
·
One person households – 28.7%
·
Couples/family households – 65.3%
·
Couple + other adults/multi-adult
households – 6.0%
This decline was reflected in large scale
shifts in the mix of household types. In particular, there were far more “couple + other adults households and multi -adult
households” than expected (6.0% is quite a lot of households). It can be
put down to two things; increased international migration and changes to
household formation. A particularly important reason for the difference can
probably be attributed to the evidence that migrants initially form fewer
households (ie two couples share one property) than those who have lived in the
UK all their lives. Also, changes to household formation patterns amongst the
rest of the population, including adult children living longer with their
parents and more young adults living in shared accommodation (as can be seen in
the growth of HMO properties (Homes of Multiple Occupation).
So, what does all this mean for Dartford
Homeowners and Landlords? Quite a lot in fact. There has been a subtle shift to
slightly larger households in the last decade, meaning smart landlords might be
tempted to buy slightly larger properties to rent out – again good news for
homeowners who will get top dollar for their home as they sell on. But now with
Brexit, household formation might swing the other way in the next decade? Who
knows? Watch this space!
If you want to find out more about the
Dartford Property Market, drop me an email to: Mark@Virotti.co.uk
